The profit target: plan it backwards from the drawdown

The profit target is what you must make to pass, usually 6% of the account: $3,000 on a 50K. Most firms give you plenty of time, so the hard part is reaching it without your worst day touching the drawdown. Size from the drawdown first, then count the days the target will take.

The usual numbers

On futures evaluations the target is almost always 6% of the starting balance: $1,500 on a 25K, $3,000 on a 50K, $6,000 on a 100K and $9,000 on a 150K. Lucid's 25K is an exception at $1,250.

The drawdown is usually smaller than the target: $2,000 against $3,000 on a typical 50K. That ratio is the whole game. You need to make 1.5 times what you're allowed to lose.

Plan it backwards

  1. Start from the drawdown. On a 50K with $2,000, decide how many bad days you want to survive in a row. Say four.
  2. That sets your worst day. $2,000 ÷ 4 = $500. Your personal daily stop is $500.
  3. That sets your trade size. If your stop on a trade is 8 points on MES ($5 a point), one contract risks $40. Two losing trades a day at three contracts is $240, well inside $500.
  4. Now count the days. Say an average green day at that size is $300, an average red day is $150, and 6 days out of 10 are green. Ten days make $1,800 minus $600, so $1,200, about $120 a day. $3,000 ÷ $120 = 25 trading days.

Twenty-five days might feel slow. Compare it with buying the eval again.

Where the time limit bites

Apex evals run for 30 calendar days, roughly 21 trading days. If your honest plan needs 25, the size you'd need to finish in time is bigger than the size your drawdown can carry. That's the moment people size up, and that's usually the moment the account ends. Topstep's Combine has no time limit, but every month rebills.

Don't sprint the last mile

Near the target the urge is to size up and finish. Two problems: a bigger trade risks more of a floor that's already risen with your profit, and on firms with consistency rules a huge final day can push the target further out. Finish at the same size you started.

Practice it

Run your plan in the simulator for the same number of days and see whether reality matches the spreadsheet. The gap between the two is the most useful thing you'll learn before paying.

Blow it here, not on a paid eval

Run the same rules on your own trades in the simulator. Free, no card, and a blown account costs you nothing but pride.

Start practicing