Expectancy vs win rate: the math that decides an eval
Expectancy is what one trade makes on average: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss. A 70% win rate with $100 winners and $300 losers loses $20 per trade. A 40% win rate with $300 winners and $100 losers makes $60 per trade. Win rate alone tells you almost nothing.
The formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
| Win rate | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy per trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | $100 | $300 | 0.7 × 100 − 0.3 × 300 = −$20 |
| 55% | $150 | $150 | 0.55 × 150 − 0.45 × 150 = +$15 |
| 40% | $300 | $100 | 0.4 × 300 − 0.6 × 100 = +$60 |
What it means for an eval
A $3,000 target divided by your expectancy is roughly the number of trades you need. At +$15 a trade that's 200 trades. At +$60 it's 50. That's the honest version of "how long will this take".
Negative expectancy can still pass an eval on a lucky streak. It won't survive the funded account, because the funded account doesn't end.
Why high win rates feel safe
Small, frequent wins feel like control. The cost hides in the rare big loss, often the one where the stop got moved. In an eval that one loss also lands on a trailing floor that your winners have been pushing up.
Measure your own
You need at least a few dozen trades before the numbers mean much. Log every trade in practice, including the ones you'd rather forget, then compute your expectancy from the log. If it's negative, no eval is cheap enough.
Blow it here, not on a paid eval
Run the same rules on your own trades in the simulator. Free, no card, and a blown account costs you nothing but pride.
Start practicing